With Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election and making a historic return to the White House, supply chain professionals are analyzing proposals and ideas that could have an impact on the industry.Judah Levine, director of research at Freightos, highlights the “pull forward” effect.... ”

A Trump win could start shaking up supply chains even before he takes office. The mere anticipation of higher tariffs could cause importers to ship earlier, creating a preemptive shipping frenzy.” Levin had said in September that if Trump wins the upcoming election and his administration announces tariff hikes that are more far-reaching than those in 2018, “the biggest economic impact won't come from spikes in containerized shipping rates (which are temporary anyway), but rather from increased costs for importers paying the new tariffs-which could be passed on to consumers at higher prices- and potential retaliatory tariffs from China or other countries, which could affect demand for U.S. exports.”

The Biden administration has retained many Trump-era tariffs, added others, and recently announced plans to close loopholes such as the de minimis exception, which currently facilitates a surge in tariff-free e-commerce goods directly to U.S. consumers from Chinese platforms such as Tetou.com and Shenzhouzhu. the report added. “As part of his planned policies upon his return to office, Trump has proposed across-the-board tariffs of 10-20 percent on most of the $3 trillion worth of U.S. imports annually, and a minimum 60 percent tariff on all imports from China.” Levin added that the front-loaded tariffs would cause freight rates to heat up as importers race to avoid the extra costs, similar to what happened when Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018 and 2019.

The Biden administration had proposed excluding a large number of Chinese imports from “de minimis” eligibility. “If Trump takes a similar move, it will be a major challenge for the large volume of Chinese goods that arrive by air through platforms such as Shein and Temu,” Levine said. Container shipping expert Lars Jensen wrote on LinkedIn: “Trump won the US presidential election. This is not a political article, but from a shipping perspective, we should expect a surge in US import demand in the short term as shippers with non-time sensitive cargoes ship more cargoes ahead of any new tariffs. Since the exact size of such tariffs, where they will apply, and when they will apply are not yet known, this could lead to a surge in demand.