The legislative branch (House of Representatives and the Senate) is also tilting towards the Republican side, so in theory, Trump should see less impediments in implementing his agenda items. This contrasts with the divide such as we’ve seen during the second half of Biden’s term- when progress on most issues, related to energy and nearly everything else, was difficult.

With its headquarters in midtown New York within 10 minutes walking distance from the Trump Tower, consultancy and shipbroker Poten & Partners is well positioned to offer an informed opinion on potential impacts on barrels and molecules moving in the deepsea tanker trades. Analyst Eric Broekhuizen and his team acknowledge, very sensibly, that: “Obviously, nobody knows the answers to these questions…” regarding exact impacts of Trump’s policies on the tanker market, and the broader realm of geopolitics. Instead, Broekhuizen suggests looking backwards to 2017-2020 (Trump’s first term) and at “what he said on the campaign trail.”

Poten notes that: “As Mr. Trump takes office for a second term, he will try to trigger a reacceleration of US oil production growth with further deregulation and making more federal lands available for drilling,” but is quick to point out that: “… it will ultimately be the oil companies who will make the decisions, which will be based on the current market and future outlook.” 

Looking further afield, Bolton argues that the Middle East will come under considerable scrutiny under Trump, and that “Iran will be a particular focus of the new US administration.” Trump is expected to continue his “maximum pressure campaign,” which could include an embargo on Iranian oil exports (if the first term is any guide).